Polymarket predicts a 34% chance that Iran will agree to end uranium enrichment by April 30th, despite ongoing US negotiations; hardline positions from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) make compliance increasingly unlikely.

Polymarket predicts a 34% chance that Iran will agree to end uranium enrichment by April 30th, despite ongoing US negotiations; hardline positions from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) make compliance increasingly unlikely.

The Persian Gulf Waterway Management Authority, a newly established organization by the Islamic Republic for the Strait of Hormuz, posted on X that passage through routes not sanctioned by the authority will not be covered by safe passage guarantees, insurance, or related liabilities. The authority further stated that any consequences resulting from unauthorized routes will be the responsibility of the vessel's owner, operator, and commander.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targeted a Singapore-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, according to The Wall Street Journal, citing two senior U.S. officials. The attack damaged the ship but caused no casualties, according to a statement from the British Maritime Trade Operations organization.
Oman is collaborating with the United States to create a secure maritime corridor for ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, bypassing routes controlled by the Islamic Republic of Iran. This move aims to prevent Iran from collecting tolls from commercial ships passing through the strait.
Ministrowie Zgromadzenia Współpracy Pereksyjskiej oraz Sekretarz Stanu USA wydaли wspólną deklarację, podkreślającą konieczność konfrontacji z zagrożeniami irańskimi, w tym rakietami, dronami oraz wsparciem sił pośrednich, aby osiągnąć pokoj i bezpieczeństwo regionalne. Deklaracja podkreśliła również wagę swobodnej nawigacji przez Cieśninę Hormuz i omówiła warunki dla przyszłych transakcji handlowych i inwestycji z Iranem, zależne od przestrzegania Iranem porozumień międzynarodowych i przestanęcia z zachęcaniem do destabilizujących zachowań.