Polymarket predicts a 17% chance of a permanent peace deal between the US and Iran by the end of the month, citing recent ceasefire violations as a major obstacle.
CENTCOM announced that the Islamic Republic attacked ships protected by the United States in the Strait of Hormuz using missiles, drones, and small boats. CENTCOM also reported the destruction of six Iranian small boats that aimed to disrupt commercial shipping.
On January 15, 2026, the United States launched naval ships and fighter aircraft to protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian small boats intercepted and fired upon several U.S. ships. In retaliation, the U.S. military engaged and destroyed Iranian boats, leading Iran to launch missiles toward the Gulf, resulting in further military engagements by U.S. air and naval forces.
On Monday, CENTCOM announced that American destroyers entered the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz to ensure safe passage for commercial ships, while Tasnim News Agency claimed Iranian navy warning shots were fired in response.
Iran launched cruise missiles at both commercial vessels and U.S. military ships in an attack.
Will there be a permenant peace deal between the US and Iran by the end of the month? Polymarket sees this at just 17 percent occurring, with the recent ceasefire violations by I see this highly unlikely of happening.
