Day 130 of the WarTuesday, July 7, 2026
Day 130 — Iran Fires Missiles at Merchant Ships in Hormuz, One Likely a Qatari LNG Tanker, Despite the Ceasefire; the Regime Misread the MoU as Control of the Strait as the U.S. Escorts via Oman; Satellite Images Debunk the Funeral 'Millions'; a Guard Commander Dies Coming Home
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Strait of HormuzStrait of HormuzTehran
The Numbers Game — Satellite Images Debunk the 'Millions'
Iran- Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi published funeral imagery claiming millions gathered to honor Khamenei, but Babak Taghvaee says the regime's proof was AI-generated video, and new Vantor satellite images released today challenge the participation claims.source
- Commentator Mahyar Tousi argues only about 5% of Iran — some 5 million people — back the regime, and even that base yielded only a few hundred thousand for the funeral, a tiny minority in so vast a country.source
Another Funeral — a Guard Commander Dies on the Way Home
- Iranian media, per Eli Afriat, report Safdar Soltani, deputy commander of the Revolutionary Guards in Paveh, Kermanshah province, was killed in a car crash while returning from Khamenei's funeral procession — 'now you have another funeral.'source
Missiles at Merchant Ships — Iran Attacks in Hormuz Despite the Ceasefire
Gulf & Naval- Iran's military fired at least two missiles at commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night, U.S. officials told N12; Axios and RadioFarda confirm the IRGC launch, with two vessels sustaining significant damage but no crew casualties.source
- Visegrád 24 reports Iran attacked two merchant vessels with missiles on the evening of July 6 despite the U.S. ceasefire; the Wall Street Journal, cited by Iran International, says one target was likely the Qatari-owned LNG tanker Al Rekiat of Nakilat.source
Miscalculation at Sea — the MoU That Iran Read Wrong
Gulf & Naval- Open Source Intel assesses the regime believed the MoU gave it complete control over the Strait of Hormuz — while the U.S. was quietly escorting commercial ships through via the Omani route, leaving Iran's assumption of dominance badly exposed.source
- LiveIranNews, citing Israel's Channel 14, reports the Quds Force set up a secret unit named 'Mukhtar' to target American officials — a claim that, alongside the shipping attacks, points to Tehran probing rather than honoring the truce.source