Day 238 of the WarFriday, October 23, 2026

Day 238 — Asked If an Iran Strike Could Come This Weekend, Ambassador Barrack Says 'Absolutely'; The Atlantic Says Trump Weighs Post-Midterm Strikes; Trump: 'I Don't Know Anything About It'

Washington · Ankara · Fort Myers · IsraelFort Myers · Washington · New YorkTehran · Persian Gulf · Bandar Kong · Bandar LengehStrait of Hormuz · Gulf of Oman · RiyadhIstanbul

The Wall Street Journal, per Open Source Intel, Says Iran Warns Renewed U.S. and Israeli Strikes Would Trigger Retaliation Across the Gulf, Including on Neighbors' Airports and Oil Pipelines; Two Senior Iranian Security Officials Tell Reuters Tehran Has Detailed Plans to Target Gulf Undersea Cables, per Iran International; IRGC Navy Commander Ali Azmaei Claims U.S. Forces Have Moved 600–700 km From Hormuz, per BBC Persian; Residents, per Vahid Online, and Open Source Intel Report Loud Blasts in Bandar Kong and Bandar Lengeh

Iran

The Wall Street Journal said Iran is now warning that renewed U.S. and Israeli airstrikes would trigger retaliation across the Persian Gulf, targeting American military installations and warships as well as civilian infrastructure in neighboring countries, including airports and oil pipelines, per Open Source Intel.source
Two senior Iranian security officials told Reuters Tehran has prepared detailed plans to attack Gulf undersea communication cables if the U.S. and Israel strike again and aims to block repairs, one saying 'there will be no more red lines'; TeleGeography's Alan Mauldin said global impact would likely be limited, per Iran International.source
IRGC Navy commander Ali Azmaei claimed that 'the Americans are not present in the Persian Gulf' and 'have moved 600 to 700 kilometers away from the Strait of Hormuz,' with their vessels not seen in the area, adding: 'America no longer has a place in the Strait of Hormuz,' per BBC Persian.source
Residents' messages to Vahid Online reported a loud blast around 1 a.m. in Bandar Kong, one describing a launch, then a sound that shook the house, and from Bandar Lengeh: 'they fire with launchers every night, this time was very bad'; Open Source Intel, citing BeamTracker, reported 'very large explosions' there with IRIAF jets airborne.source

The Atlantic, per Iran International, Says Trump Is Weighing Multi-Day Strikes on Iran After the 3 November Midterms but Has Made No Final Decision, While U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack, Asked by Mario Nawfal Whether an Attack Could Come This Weekend, Says 'Absolutely'; Trump, Asked About Barrack's Remark, Says 'I Don't Know Anything About It'; the Israeli Broadcasting Authority, per LiveIranNews, Says Trump Ordered CENTCOM to Prepare a Strike Plan With No Timeline Set

US / Coalition

The Atlantic reported that Trump is weighing multi-day strikes on Iran after the 3 November midterms but has made no final decision, naming nuclear sites, missile and drone capabilities and energy infrastructure as possible targets; it said he earlier considered a pre-election strike but did not approve it, per Iran International.source
U.S. ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack, asked in an interview with Mario Nawfal whether an attack on Iran could come this weekend, said 'Absolutely'; in the same interview he said Trump is ready for a deal, talks have gone on for months, and almost everyone agrees the 'immediate nuclear threat' has been removed, per Iran International.source
Asked about Barrack's remark, Trump said 'He's a powerful man, I think. I don't know anything about it,' per Open Source Intel; Iran International renders it 'If so, I don't know anything about it' and says he was asked at Fort Myers airport whether he had backed away from holding off on an attack until after the midterms.source
The Israeli Broadcasting Authority reported, per LiveIranNews, that Trump has ordered CENTCOM to prepare an operational plan for striking targets in Iran, with no timeline yet set for any operation, and that Israel has raised its security alert; LiveIranNews noted the order does not mean a final decision to attack.source

Trump Tells a Fort Myers Rally 'We May Do Another Little Epic Fury; or They'll Make a Deal,' per Iran International, and Tells Reporters the U.S. Can End the War 'Very Quickly,' per RadioFarda; Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Says 'Economic Exclusion' Operations Have Severely Weakened Iran's Shadow Tanker Fleet, and U.N. Ambassador Mike Waltz Tells the Financial Times the Blockade Can Be Maintained 'Into the Foreseeable Future,' per Iran International

US / Coalition

At a rally in Fort Myers, Florida, Trump said 'We may do another little Epic Fury; or they'll make a deal,' adding that Iran's leaders would start serious talks if they were wise but he doubts they will; he claimed the U.S. destroyed Iran's enrichment capacity in Midnight Hammer, per Iran International.source
Trump told reporters 'We can end it very quickly, but Iran is a country in the process of collapsing,' asking whether to 'finish it off or just let it gradually disintegrate'; he claimed more oil passed through Hormuz last week than before the war and that the U.S. could take 'all the oil' or even 'the entire country,' per RadioFarda.source
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wrote on X that 'economic exclusion' operations have severely weakened Iran's shadow tanker fleet, left its main oil export terminal empty and depleted its floating oil reserves, adding: 'America is no longer managing the threat of the Islamic Republic; we are ending it,' per Iran International.source
U.N. Ambassador Mike Waltz told the Financial Times that 'the President and the U.S. Navy can maintain this blockade into the foreseeable future,' saying Washington's strategic war aims will not be met until Iran's highly enriched material is eliminated and a 'meaningful agreement' on enrichment is reached, per Iran International.source

IRGC Navy Claims Two 'Violating' Supertankers Hit Mines on the Unauthorized Southern Route of Hormuz and Were Abandoned by Their Crews, per Fars and Open Source Intel; UKMTO, per LiveIranNews, Reports a Tanker Hit by an Unknown Projectile Off Oman and Over 30 Maritime Incidents in Three Weeks; Saudi Civil Defense Warns Riyadh Residents of Imminent Missile and Drone Attacks Amid Media Reports of Explosions, and Brent Tops $113, per BBC Persian

Gulf & Naval

The IRGC Navy claimed that two 'violating' supertankers trying to use the unauthorized southern route of the Strait of Hormuz hit naval mines, their engine rooms disabled by an explosion and severe fire, and that the tankers, carrying over 4.5 million barrels of crude, were abandoned by their crews, per Open Source Intel.source
UKMTO, per LiveIranNews, said a tanker exiting the Strait of Hormuz was hit by an unknown projectile 7 nautical miles northeast of Lima, Oman, the previous day but continued its course, warning that over 30 maritime incidents were recorded in the region in three weeks and a large share go unreported.source
Saudi Arabia's civil defense warned Riyadh residents early Friday to take shelter from imminent missile and drone attacks, lifting the alert minutes later and warning that filming air-defense systems is illegal; some media reported explosions in the capital, but official and independent sources gave no details, per BBC Persian.source
Brent crude rose above $113 a barrel in East Asian trading early Friday, its highest in five months, as markets remain hit by disrupted Hormuz shipping amid the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, per BBC Persian; Trump had claimed Iran was spreading 'fake news' to push oil prices up before the U.S. midterms.source

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan Says Participants in the Istanbul Meeting Agree Another Attack on Iran Would Widen the War and Diplomacy Is the Only Way; the Foreign Ministers of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan Call for the Full Resumption of Safe Passage Through Hormuz, per Iran International Citing the Saudi State News Agency

Global

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said participants in the Istanbul meeting of European and regional foreign ministers agree another attack on Iran would widen the war and that diplomacy is the only way, calling for Hormuz to be reopened immediately and for attacks on Saudi Arabia to stop, per Iran International.source
The Saudi, Turkish, Egyptian and Pakistani foreign ministers, meeting in Istanbul, called for the swift and full resumption of safe passage through Hormuz and said the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran must be resolved only through dialogue, backing the memorandum signed in Islamabad, per Iran International citing the Saudi state news agency.source

Sources