IR26 · Escalation Watch
Escalation Watch
Signals that the war could resume at full scale — from US airlift and carrier movements to Hormuz, Israel's readiness and the regime's own moves. Every status links to its sources; every prediction stays on record.
Barometer
Tension
1 on alarm · 5 elevated · 3 calm
Updated 13 October 2026
This week · 13 October 2026
The Strait of Hormuz was the most active front this week: Reuters counted a wartime-high 12 tanker attacks in the week to 5 Oct, the IRGC said three supertankers hit mines on 10–11 Oct, and Iran's deputy foreign minister said: 'We are in a state of war, not peace.' On 7–8 Oct, The Atlantic, Axios and Israel's Channel 12 reported that the Pentagon had been told to prepare options for major strikes on Iran; Trump said on 8 Oct there would be none before the 3 Nov midterms, then declined to rule them out. Indirect talks through Qatar and Russia continue but remain stuck on enrichment and Hormuz. Our sources reported no evacuations, no airspace closures over Iran or Israel and no U.S. airlift surge, while Houthi missile strikes have halted flights at Riyadh airport since 10 Oct.
Indicators
U.S. airlift
CalmNo surge in U.S. cargo or tanker flights was reported this week. Reported moves were withdrawals: 12 B-1Bs left RAF Fairford over a terror threat (Axios/WSJ, 4 Oct) and three AC-130Js flew from Saudi Arabia to the U.S. (Babak Taghvaee, 5 Oct).
Carriers and blockade
ElevatedCENTCOM said a U.S. jet disabled the blockade runner Ocean Molica in the Gulf of Oman on 10 Oct; 135 ships have been turned back since 14 July. The Washington Post reported on 1 Oct that the Pentagon is weighing a surge to three carrier groups.
Airspace and flights
ElevatedRiyadh's King Khalid airport halted operations after Houthi missile strikes on 10–11 Oct; the first killed 12, per Saudi officials, and the Houthis warned airlines off Saudi airports. No closures of Iranian, Iraqi or Israeli airspace were reported.
Evacuations and advisories
CalmNo reports in our sources in the past week.
Israeli readiness
ElevatedIsrael's Channel 12 said on 8 Oct that U.S. officers told IDF chief Eyal Zamir of a readiness order for a broad attack on Iran, which he warned could delay Israel's 27 Oct election. No Home Front Command changes were reported.
Iranian military moves
ElevatedThe IRGC said it sent commandos to the western borders and the Army said 50 units were deployed at the borders (10 Oct). On 12 Oct, security chief Mohsen Rezaei threatened to destroy over $2 trillion of U.S. assets in the UAE and Hormuz if war resumes.
Strait of Hormuz
AlarmUKMTO reported tankers hit by projectiles on 11 and 12 Oct and the IRGC said three supertankers hit mines on 10–11 Oct, after a record 12 attacks in the week to 5 Oct (Reuters). Iran's deputy FM: 'We are in a state of war, not peace.'
Internet in Iran
CalmOur sources reported no new internet shutdowns in Iran this week. On 12 Oct, IRGC-linked Tasnim floated licenses and transit fees for Google and Meta cables in Iranian waters, while Kayhan's editor threatened to cut Gulf fiber-optic cables.
Talks and ultimatums
ElevatedThe Kremlin said on 10 Oct that Putin relayed Tehran's view on ending the war to Trump, and Qatar says indirect talks continue. Washington demands real enrichment cuts, and Trump said on 9 Oct the issue 'will be resolved soon, one way or another'.
Military air traffic
Military aircraft broadcasting their position between Europe and the Gulf, refreshed every 10 minutes. The daily count of US airlift (REACH) flights and tankers is one of the clearest signs of a build-up.
Only aircraft with their transponder on are visible: mostly transports, tankers and some reconnaissance planes. Fighters and bombers on missions usually fly dark, and receiver coverage over Iran and the Gulf is thin, so an empty map is not proof of calm. Data: adsb.lol (ODbL).
Predictions
Concrete, dated claims with a probability. Once published, a prediction cannot be edited or deleted — the database enforces it. After the deadline we mark whether it happened and keep score.
Open
- 75%chance
UKMTO will publish at least five reports of attacks on merchant ships in or near the Strait of Hormuz between 13 and 19 October 2026.
Deadline: 19 October 2026 · published 13 October 2026
UKMTO counted 12 tanker attacks in the week to 5 October and has reported more almost daily since; the IRGC says no ship may cross Hormuz without its coordination.
- 40%chance
U.S. forces will carry out a strike on Iranian territory (mainland or islands), acknowledged by CENTCOM or the Pentagon, by 31 October 2026.
Deadline: 31 October 2026 · published 13 October 2026
The US struck Iranian soil twice during the pause — 13 nights in July and about 100 targets on 1–2 September — and the tanker war is escalating. Against that, Treasury Secretary Bessent said on 11 October that Trump expects no new fighting before the 3 November midterms.
- 45%chance
U.S. forces will strike Houthi targets in Yemen, acknowledged by CENTCOM, by 31 October 2026.
Deadline: 31 October 2026 · published 13 October 2026
After the deadly Houthi strikes on Riyadh airport, Trump said Washington may join Saudi Arabia's campaign against the Houthis and would decide soon.
- 30%chance
Israel will strike Iranian territory, as confirmed by Israel or Iran, by 15 November 2026.
Deadline: 15 November 2026 · published 13 October 2026
Israeli leaders keep warning of renewed strikes, but throughout the pause Israel has moved in step with the US, which is signalling restraint before the midterms.
- 10%chance
The United States and Iran will announce a signed agreement that ends the war or formally extends the ceasefire, by 30 November 2026.
Deadline: 30 November 2026 · published 13 October 2026
Qatar-mediated contacts continue and Tehran says it will send revised proposals, but Trump demands that Iran accept all US terms and Pezeshkian called talks with Washington pointless on 5 October.
How this works
- Each indicator is rated calm, elevated or alarm from the past 7–10 days of reporting, the last three days weighing most. Alarm means signals that usually come right before or during major hostilities.
- The overall level counts alarm as 2 points, elevated as 1 and calm as 0, divided by the maximum: 0–19 calm, 20–44 tension, 45–69 high risk, 70+ alarm.
- Predictions are written by our editors, approved before publication and frozen once published. A prediction scores as "happened" or "did not happen" on its deadline; voided ones (unresolvable) are shown but not scored.
- The Brier score is the mean squared gap between our probability and the outcome (1 or 0). A forecaster who always says 50% scores 0.25; lower is better.
- Air traffic comes from the open ADS-B network adsb.lol, collected by our own server every 10 minutes.