Day 79 of the WarSunday, May 17, 2026
Day 79 — CENTCOM: 70 Vessels Redirected (Up From 61 on Day 71) — Iran's Hormuz Hold 'Dramatically Degraded' — Day 77 NYT Strike-Prep Window Closes Without Renewed Strikes — Two-Phase MOU Drafting Continues
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Strait of Hormuz
CENTCOM: 70 Commercial Vessels Redirected Under Blockade (Up From 61 on Day 71) — Iran's Hold on Hormuz 'Dramatically Degraded' Per Cooper — Two-Track Posture Continues: Blockade Tightens While MOU Drafting Continues
Gulf & Naval- U.S. Central Command's running tally of the naval blockade now stands at 70 commercial vessels redirected — up from 61 reported on Day 71 (delta of +9 over eight days, a steady tempo of ~1 vessel/day). The figure confirms the blockade has not paused during the MOU drafting cycle; Hormuz-bound and Iran-port-bound traffic continues to be turned around in real time. Per Adm. Cooper's Day 76 testimony figure of '90%+ of 8,000 naval mines destroyed' and the Hormuz-degraded posture, the U.S. assessment is that Iran's physical chokehold has collapsed and only the threat-rhetoric / insurance-signaling component remains. The Day 78 two-phase framework implicitly accepts that asymmetry: Iran lifts a closure that is mostly perceptual; the U.S. lifts a blockade that is fully kinetic.
Day 79 Status: April 8 Pakistan-Mediated Ceasefire Holds — Day 77 NYT Strike-Prep Package Still Unactioned — Two-Phase MOU Drafting Continues Through Pakistani / Qatari / Egyptian Channels
- Status update on the end-of-week cycle. Despite the Day 77 New York Times reporting that Israel and the United States were 'most intensely preparing yet' to renew strikes 'as soon as next week' — i.e., the week now ending — no major renewal of kinetic action has taken place. The Day 73 Trump rejection + Day 74 'stupid' escalation + Day 76 Cooper Senate damage assessment all functioned as pressure on Tehran without crossing into the renewed-strike threshold. Mediation continues through the Pakistani back-channel + Qatar + Egypt — the two-phase MOU draft (Hormuz first, nuclear second; U.S.-20 vs Iran-5+5) is the document being marked up. Pezeshkian's Day 72 'never bow' posture remains his public position; the Day 79 read is that domestic-audience hard-line rhetoric and back-channel substantive flexibility coexist deliberately. Day 79 of internet shutdown.